Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice

Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies:          Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary          Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region          Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Qubec hydro-electric power          Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops. 1. Introduction to the Use of Uncertainties to Inform Adaptation Decisions 1.1 Why Is Guidance on the Role of Uncertainty Needed and Who Is It For? 1.2 Why Is It Important to Include Uncertainties in Adaptation Planning? 1.3 What Information Is Included in This Book and Where Can I Find It? 1.4 How Can This Publication Be Used? Suggested Readings 2. Background On Uncertainty Assessment Supporting Climate Adaptation Decision-Making 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Uncertainties in Climate Change 2.3 Uncertainty Typology 2.4 Methods of Assessing Uncertainty 2.5 Decision-Making Frameworks Under Climate Change Uncertainty 2.6 Using Uncertainty Assessment in Decision-Making Practice On Climate Adaptation 2.7 Cases, Types of Uncertainty, and Methods As Used in Chapter 4 2.8 Communicating Uncertainty Assessment To Policy-Makers and Decision-Makers 2.9 Conclusions 3. How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base For National Adaptation Planning? 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Overview of National Adaptation Activities3.3 Consideration of Uncertainty in the Knowledge Base For Adaptation 3.4 Conclusions 4. Showcasing Practitioners’ Experiences 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Real Life Case Studies 5. Making Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty – Lessons From Theory And Practice 5.1 Introduction 5.2 A New Support Framework For Adaptation Decisions Under Uncertainty 5.3 What Has Practice Shown Us? 5.4 Dealing With Uncertainty in Adaptation Decision-Making 5.5 Guidance and Recommendations 5.6 Final Remarks Index