Energy 20002020: World Prospects and Regional Stresses

In 1977, at the Xth World Energy Conference in Istanbul, the Conservation Commission presented an initial global study of future trends in energy supply and demand up to 2020. This pioneering work was the origin of large scale global energy surveys. At the Munich Conference of 1980, the Commission made more thorough analyses by concentrating particularly on the specific behaviour of Third World Nations. Today, in New Delhi, in keeping with the tradition established by its previous surveys, the Commission is developing a new global study, the originality of which lies in the procedure adopted in its production. Rejecting centralised forecasting models which have almost exclusively dominated the minds of researchers, the Commission recommended a decen tralised method of approach which was totally different both in its basic principles and in its implementation. Essentially, the inhabitants of the regions were to be given the opportunity of expressing their own views on their energy future, rather than imposing on them an external model and therefore external results. 1 Presentation and Analysis of Results.- 1 Situation of the Study.- 1.1 Historical Introduction.- 1.2 Specificity.- 1.3 The Objective of the Study.- 1.3.1 Formulation of the objective.- 1.3.2 Forecasting procedure.- 1.3.3 Means.- 1.4 Preliminary Remarks.- 1.5 Instructions for Use.- II Global Equilibrium and North-South Dynamics.- 2.1 The Fundamental Factors: Demography and Economic Growth.- 2.1.1 Demography.- 2.1.2 Economic growth.- 2.2 World Energy Consumption.- 2.2.1 Consumption totals and consumption per capita.- 2.2.2 The dynamics of North-South consumption.- 2.2.3 Commercial and non-commercial 16 consumptions.- 2.3 Evolution of Supplies.- 2.3.1 World equilibrium.- 2.3.2 The industrialised nations.- 2.3.3 The Third World.- 2.4 World Energy Production.- 2.4.1 Total production.- 2.4.2 North-South production structures.- 2.5 Interregional Trade at a Global Level.- 2.5.1 The world market.- 2.5.2 The trade in fuels.- III Evolution of Regional Energy Balances.- 3.1 North America.- 3.1.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.1.2 Energy consumption.- 3.1.3 Supply pattern.- 3.1.4 Energy production.- 3.1.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.2 Western Europe.- 3.2.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.2.2 Energy consumption.- 3.2.3 Supply pattern.- 3.2.4 Energy production.- 3.2.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.3 Industrialised Countries of the Pacific.- 3.3.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.3.2 Energy consumption.- 3.3.3 Supply pattern.- 3.3.4 Energy production.- 3.3.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.4 Eastern Europe.- 3.4.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.4.2 Energy consumption.- 3.4.3 Supply pattern.- 3.4.4 Energy production.- 3.4.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.5 North Africa and Middle East.- 3.5.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.5.2 Energy consumption.- 3.5.3 Supply pattern.- 3.5.4 Energy production.- 3.5.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.6 Africa South of the Sahara.- 3.6A Black Africa: Africa South of the Sahara without South Africa.- 3.6.1 A Demographic and economic environment.- 3.6.2A Energy consumption.- 3.6.3A Supply pattern.- 3.6.4A Energy production.- 3.6.5A Interregional energy trade.- 3.6B Africa South of the Sahara.- 3.6.1 B Demographic and economic environment.- 3.6.2B Energy consumption.- 3.6.3B Supply pattern.- 3.6.4B Energy production.- 3.6.5B Interregional energy trade.- 3.7 South Asia.- 3.7.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.7.2 Energy consumption.- 3.7.3 Supply pattern.- 3.7.4 Energy production.- 3.7.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.8 South-East Asia.- 3.8.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.8.2 Energy consumption.- 3.8.3 Supply pattern.- 3.8.4 Energy production.- 3.8.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.9 Centrally Planned Asian Countries.- 3.9.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.9.2 Energy consumption.- 3.9.3 Supply pattern.- 3.9.4 Energy production.- 3.9.5 Interregional energy trade.- 3.10 Latin America.- 3.10.1 Demographic and economic environment.- 3.10.2 Energy consumption.- 3.10.3 Supply pattern.- 3.10.4 Energy production.- 3.10.5 Interregional energy trade.- IV General Guidelines.- 4.1 Overall Energy Context and Long-term Perspectives.- 4.2 The Readaptation of the World Energy System.- 4.3 The Essential Regional Questions.- 4.4 Differentiated Evolutions of the Regions.- 4.5 Towards a Tripolar World.- 4.6 The Energy Future in Perspective.- II Methodology.- V Methodology.- 5.1 Regionalisation.- 5.2 Period of Reference.- 5.3 The Forecasting Horizon.- 5.4 Field of Study.- 5.5 Forecasting Method.- 5.6 Forecasting Scenarios.- 5.7 Units and Equivalences.- III Annexes.- Annex 1 Composition of the Regions.- Annex 2 Composition of the Regional Working teams (RWT).- Annex 3 Meetings of the Regional Working Teams.- Annex 4 Units – Equivalences.- Annex 5 Reference Base 1960-1978.- Annex 6 Demographic Forecasts.- Annex 7 Economic Forecasts.- Annex 8 Regional File.- Annex 9 First Stage of Energy Forecasts (Centralised Stage).- Annex 10 Final stage of Energy Forecasts (Decentralised Stage).- Annex 11 Energy Consumptions Forecasts.- Annex 12 Energy Production Forecasts.- Annex 13 Energy Exchanges Forecasts.- Annex 14 Balance Factor.- Annexes 15-19 Regional Structures: Energy Dependences-Elasticities-lntensities.- Annex 20 Analysis of Differences Between the Two Stages of the Study.- Annex 21 Comparison of the “Munich” and “New Delhi” Studies.- Annex 22 Annual World and Cumulative 1978-2000-2020 Consumptions.- Annex 23 Reserves of Non-renewable Energy Sources.- Annex 24 Bibliography.- Annex 25 Minutes of Round Table No. 5 Energy 2000-2020: Supply, Demand and Regional Stresses.