Methodologies for Estimating the Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters (Integrated Disaster Risk Management)

Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 History 1.2 Why do we need to quantify flow losses? 1.3 Approaches adopted in this booklet Chapter 2 Functional fragility curves for production capacity 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Model and estimation procedures 2.2.1 Formulation of FFCs 2.2.2 Setting of damage states 2.2.3 Formulation of likelihood function: multinominal response model 2.2.4 Confidence interval for FFC 2.3. Model estimation 2.3.1 Data 2.3.2 Estimation results 2.3.3 Estimation results for different industrial sectors 2.3.4 Confidence interval of FFCs 2.3.5 Expected capacity level 2.4 Summary Chapter 3 Measures for Estimating Production Capacity Losses 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Lifeline resilience factor 3.3 Method to estimate production shocks 3.2.1 Earthquake disaster case 3.2.2 Flood disaster case 3.4 Application to earthquake and flood disasters 3.4.1 The Great East Japan Earthquake 3.4.2 Flood disaster case 3.4 Summary 3.5 References Chapter 4 SCGE models to Assess Higher-order Impacts of Production Capacity Losses 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Literature Review 4.3 Basic Model and Key Parameters 4.4 Earthquake disasters 4.4.1 Data 4.4.2 How to reflect the PCLR into an SCGE model 4.4.3 Estimation Results 4.5 Flood disasters 4.6.Summary Chapter 5 Economic Impacts of a Nankai Megathrust Earthquake Scenario 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Hazard Information 5.3 Estimated Economic Impacts of a Nankai Trough Earthquake Scenario 5.4 Summary Chapter 6 Economic Impacts of the Transportation Network Disruption: An Extension of the SCGE Model 6.1 Introduction 6.2 The framework for economic loss estimation due to transportation network damages 6.3 The SCGE model to assess the interregional spillovers of direct damage through transportation networks 6.4 The Niigata-Chuetsu Earthquake-A Case Study 6.4.1 An overview of the disaster and model parameter settings 6.5 Conclusions Chapter 7 Conclusions